Welcome to San Diego Blog | April 25, 2012

San Diego Condo Hotlist

Talking about Downtown San Diego condos, it seems like the 3 most important words in real estate have changed from location, location, location to inventory, inventory, inventory!

This starts with a client conversation today about their condo at The Mark (Click on condo building links to see available inventory).  The stimulus for our chat was a new listing today that is an excellent comp to theirs.  It is also the ONLY current listing at The Mark.  The Mark has 233 condos!

Further investigation showed that over the past 6 months, 10 closed sales have occured at The Mark.  In the Community Blog at WelcomeToSanDiego.com, quarterly Market Absorption Reports are provided showing Downtown San Diego Condo sales based on selling price.

However, today’s conversation about a specific building told a different story about absorption rates.  Looking at absorption in individual buildings is integral in making buying and selling decisions.

In our analysis of Market Absorption, a balanced market has a 6 month supply of inventory.  Therefore, an inventory of 10 condos would support the 10 sales that have closed over the past 6 months.  At The Mark, there is only one condo for sale!  The balance here is clearly shifted toward sellers.

Everyone knows that The Mark is a HOT San Diego Condo building.  But is it the hottest?

Hottest San Diego Condos

Even with a 10 to 1 ratio of sales to current listings, The Mark is not the hottest San Diego condo.

There are two buildings that have higher ratios among Downtown San Diego Condos.  First place on the hotlist is held by Acqua Vista–with 15 closed sales in the past six months and a current inventory of 1.  Acqua Vista has over 380 condos.

Downtown San Diego real estate observers remember only a year ago having a dozen (or dozens) of listings at Acqua Vista.

The second highest ratio of closings to listings in Downtown San Diego Real Estate is at Gaslamp City Square.  There is currently a single listing here, while 12 condos sold in the past 6 months.

The San Diego Condo hotlist and coldlist that follows is based on the ratio of closings over the past 6 months to current listings:

Hotlist                                                                    Coldlist

# Sold # Currently Condo Name # Sold # Currently
Last 6 mos. Listed Last 6 mos. Listed
Acqua Vista 15 1 Horizons 4 8
Gaslamp City Sq. 12 1 Aria 2 6
The Mark 10 1 Harbor Club 7 10
Icon 21 3 Pinnacle 6 7
Alta 5 0 Parkloft 3 3
La Vita 6 2 Renaissance 4 3
Cityfront Terrace 8 3
Bayside 10 4

Other San Diego Condos that didn’t have ratios that put them in the top 8 for the hotlist further demonstrate the demand for Downtown real estate.

For example, Electra has seen 20 sales in the past 6 months (second only to Icon), but still has an inventory of 11 for sale.  The Grande shows 15 sales and 7 current listings.

Two of the smaller highrises, Park Place and The Legend, each with fewer than 180 units, were still hot for sales.  However, The Legend still has 8 current listings and doesn’t have a “hot ratio.”

Listing Hot San Diego Condos

It’s spring in San Diego.  Typically a busy season in the real estate market.  We’ve recognized over the past several months that two primary factors have created this limited inventory situation in Downtown San Diego Real Estate:

  1. The end of new construction opportunities
  2. A reduction in Notices of Defaults from lenders (said to be over 70%), reducing short sale and REO activity

Owners in the hot 8 buildings are seeing real appreciation and in some cases multiple offers quite quickly.

For example, Alta #1406.  A 1,227 sf, 2 BR/2BA that was listed at $725,000.  It was the only listing in the building.  After only one week on the market, multiple offers were submitted and the property went pending.  The seller had purchased the condo in 2011 for $650,000.  Alta is a hot building!

And finally back to The Mark, where this blog started.  Yesterday The Mark #2001 came on the market.  It’s a spectacular view, in one of San Diego’s premier buildings–and the only current listing.  It’s listed at $764,900.  If you’re in the market, come have a look.

It looks like a slam dunk–with the limited opportunities in comparable buildings.  There’s even more evidence however, because within the past 30 days, The Mark 2401 (same floorplan) sold for $753,000.  This condo showed real appreciation of almost 16% in slightly over 2 years.

A move up market

These are only two examples of what has become common in the hot buildings.  San Diego condo owners had been moving up or buying multiple units since the boom began.

The distressed economy, combined with developer inventory being sold at low prices had discouraged condo owners from listing their homes.  These factors have abated and sellers are seeing opportunities in the hot buildings.

Let’s have a conversation about listing your condo in one of the hot buildings.  Next week’s blog will include some of the innovative techniques in the Welcome to San Diego marketing system.

Give me a call at 858.432.3203 or e-mail david.manes@welcometosandiego.com

Written by: Dannecker & Associates

Categories: Columbia District Real Estate, Cortez Hill Real Estate, Downtown San Diego, East Village Real Estate, Gaslamp Real Estate, Little Italy Real Estate

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